British Columbians will have to wait a while longer to find out which party will end up forming the provincial government.
Here, in Boundary-Similkameen, last week’s announcement of final results in the recent provincial election confirmed MLA Linda Larson’s win with a sizeable plurality, but we don’t yet know for certain if she’ll end up on the opposition side of the legislature when all the dust settles.
With neither the B.C. Liberals nor the NDP forming a majority after all votes were counted, it was left to the B.C. Greens, with just three seats, to support one of the other two parties to be the government.
After negotiations with both the Liberals and the NDP, the Greens chose to side with John Horgan’s NDP. The combined seats of the NDP and Greens make 44, the very minimum for a majority.
But that deal doesn’t settle things.
Constitutional convention suggests that Premier Christy Clark, as the incumbent, gets the first shot at forming a government. She also points out that with 43 seats compared to the NDP’s 41, she has a plurality.
Clark intends to try to form a government and will test whether she can receive the confidence of a majority of MLAs in the legislature. It is her right to try to do this.
It is to Clark’s credit that she plans to recall the legislature in early June, rather than dragging things out to September, and also that she says she won’t seek a new election.
But the odds are that barring the unexpected, the first time there is a vote of confidence or a vote of supply (money), Clark’s short-lived new government would fall and Lieutenant Governor Judith Guichon will call on Horgan to try to form a government.
There are no guarantees Horgan can succeed, even with the support of Green Leader Andrew Weaver and his two fellow MLAs.
A speaker of the legislature must be chosen and if that person comes from the ranks of the NDP or Greens, the government and opposition would be tied with 43 seats each. The speaker only votes to break a tie.
It’s not clear that the speaker would always vote with the government. Speakers are bound by conventions set by precedents, so an NDP government supported by the Greens is by no means guaranteed it can pass its agenda.
All parties will need to compromise and in a province that hasn’t seen a minority government since 1952, that won’t come easily.
And every cough or sniffle of an MLA could pose the risk that the government will fall if one MLA misses a crucial vote.
Assuming Clark’s government falls and Horgan becomes premier, as appears most likely, he would be wise to pursue a cautious and conciliatory agenda, tackling first the issues that can win support on all sides of the legislature.
Removing corporate, union and foreign political donations, bringing B.C. in line with other Canadian jurisdictions, is a clear priority that the Liberals would have a hard time fighting.
But blocking Kinder Morgan’s Trans Mountain pipeline expansion in defiance of Alberta’s NDP government and the federal Liberal government is inviting a conflict that could put a shaky new government in jeopardy.
And moving ahead with a change to a proportional system of elections without seeking a mandate from British Columbians would be courting catastrophe.
But after 16 years of the same party in government, a little bit of upheaval and renewal is probably a good thing.
And Larson will benefit from the experience of serving a while in opposition.
