Neufeld and Cannings neck and neck in new poll

Local Conservative candidate Marshall Neufeld has closed the gap with NDP candidate Richard Cannings and the two are now neck and neck, according to a poll just released by Vancouver-based polling firm Insights West.

With 36 per cent supporting Cannings and 31 per cent supporting Neufeld, the gap between the two is within the margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 per cent, based on the sample size of 301 eligible voters.

The poll in South Okanagan-West Kootenay (SOWK) was conducted for Dogwood Initiative, an organization that campaigns on environmental issues. This is the third poll since July that Insights West has conducted here as well as in ridings on the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island.

The dramatic drop for Cannings, down 19 per cent from a poll taken in July by the same firm, is largely the result of a climb by Liberal candidate Connie Denesiuk who has more than doubled her support to 23 per cent from 11 per cent in July.

Pollster Mario Canseco, vice president public affairs with Insights West, said the Liberal rise largely results from national trends that have seen Liberal support grow. But he said the fact that Denesiuk is doing better than Liberals in many other ridings outside of the Lower Mainland suggests she is also fighting a strong campaign.

The problem, he suggests, is there isn’t enough time for Denesiuk to grow her support enough to be competitive.

“To go from 11 per cent to 23 per cent from July to October, and be in a position to be a very respectable third place at this point is definitely something that doesn’t happen just because (Liberal Leader) Justin Trudeau is doing great at the national level,” said Canseco. “It shows that you’ve been knocking on doors and connecting with the people in a way that hasn’t been done before in the riding – maybe laying the groundwork for a much tougher fight – who knows, maybe in six months. If there’s a minority, we might be looking at this again sooner rather than later.”

The possibility of Denesiuk’s rise pulling enough votes away from Cannings that Neufeld wins could certainly happen, said Canseco.

Not only could Cannings and Neufeld be in an even tighter race when the margin of error is taken into account, but the strength of the Conservative ground game is a force to be reckoned with, he said.

“There’s a tendency for the Conservatives to be really in touch with their base and generate enough momentum in the final stages,” he said. “They have a get-out-the-vote machine that is incomparable, not only in Canada, but I would say in North America.”

Canseco thinks this election could lead to a long discussion about how to end splitting of the progressive vote.

“Right now it’s people who aren’t associated with the parties who are calling for strategic voting,” he said. “It’s not particularly the parties themselves… If there’s ridings where the Conservatives can squeak by with 33 or 34 per cent, there’s going to be a lot of people wondering what happened.”

The fall of the NDP occurred in all the ridings Insights West polled, although it wasn’t as strong as in SOWK.

In several Lower Mainland ridings, it’s a two-way race between Liberals and Conservatives with Liberals in the lead – Vancouver South, North Vancouver and West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country.

The NDP leads in SOWK, Burnaby—North Seymour, Courtney—Alberni and Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke, although the lead in Courtney—Alberni is only by two per cent.

Support for the Green Party in SOWK has remained in the single digits for all three polls. Only for the most recent poll did the Greens have a candidate, Samantha Troy, who has eight per cent of decided voters.

Canseco points out that the Conservatives are still polling below what their support would be if voters in the new riding voted for the party they supported in 2011.

RICHARD McGUIRE

Osoyoos Times

See news release from Dogwood Initiative and summary of polls in other ridings