I think the economic “canary” just keeled over on Main Street.

You can kick, prod, poke that little yellow money bird as much as you want … but it ain’t gonna fly no more.

I would call this empty store phenomena the Linda Larson “Default-By-Design Economic Plan.” Nothing personal on Linda, but as she is the elected government’s local “happy face” … she by default gets to own this tag for an apparent and undeniable declining local commercial strip during her feeble tenure.

Governments jaw bone a lot. Talk, talk-talk; more rules and more taxes; hidden fees; more fines; and yet more hidden coercion. You get, as a result higher costs, yet less services, and … for a long time … on the surface all seem to remain fine. That is until the little guy drops dead from fiscal exhaustion. Governments make the rules and the little guys starve from over-regulation that stifles risk.

Oliver’s downtown empty storefront rates are high, and will climb even higher this year. A casual walk shows that the storefront count on the strip will tally about a 30 per cent visible vacancy rate. Add in the “burnt out” empty lots and never-rebuilds (for at least 30 years now) you get about 40 per cent vacancy rate in total current retail inventory on the 97 strip.

This shows something big is happening in the local economy. No commercial entity will rebuild here after a building is lost. Look at the half dozen commercial lots that have been left vacant over the years, and never rebuilt, with only weather beaten for-sale signs as a rather tepid economic development hope.

There is obviously a distressing and growing vacant lot and empty storefront count. There are simply no new high-street business that are forming. In the expected and healthy decline/re-fresh rate for new business formation, Oliver has the worst optics so far. And optics renders visitor impressions, which when negative chase away new prospects for business relocations. A low vitality “high street” … means a low income, low prospect town. Main street vacancies are the local ‘canary in the coal mine’ which gives the feeling of a creeping ghost strip. It will take a very long time to turn around without imagination, immigration, and a recommitted community with a transfusion of realistic attitudes from local government to realistically attract viable new businesses … other than down-market tattoo parlours, pawn shops, vape stores, or dodgy marijuana dispensaries. Even our local pawn shop, after a few relocations gave up, as it could not make it here.

Sorry, no amount of fresh paint, new signage, or media happy talk will convince the next generation to take up the retail slack, and attract successful, vital new businesses. The small town, retail business model is dead.

Oliver, at just under 5,000 souls, who for the most part have no growing disposable income, let alone healthy population growth (and remember … prisoners in the local jail will not add much to your local purchasing power. Demographically, the average family income is far below the provincial par and there is no extra dollars to support a prosperous, busy, vibrant high street. Tourists are seasonal, and most business have 100 good-weather days to make it the rest of the year. Many don’t make it.

Government, at every level, has killed off innovation and risk-appetite in the private sector. They have made it impossible to meet minimum worker wages, let alone have any profits left over. Wages are chronically low in this region, energy inflation, outsized taxation, and household rents render living costs that exceed many family incomes. We are now creating a situation that most residents are a half-a-paycheque  away from personal bankruptcy. Even the local doctors regularly bail the local hospital because the support conditions remain dire.

Every store on the strip will have to pay from 30 to 50 per cent in property taxes as part of the triple-net for taxes to local government. Add in GST, other provincial taxes, levies, fees and fines, and you get an economic dead zone.

Oliver is no longer the “wine capital” of Canada, having not made the requisite investment to keep that moniker. Rather, Oliver is slowly becoming a penal colony, where only the incarcerated, indigent and indifferent remain … because it is simply too expensive to go anywhere else. That is not a formula for future community success.

Robbi Saks, Oliver