Federal Conservative candidate Marshall Neufeld was handing out Canadian flags in the Cherry Fiesta parade. (Richard McGuire photo)
As a new poll shows a major swing in federal voter support to the NDP and away from the Conservatives in the new riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay (SOWK), candidates for the three main parties are campaigning virtually full time.
The poll, conducted by Insights West for Dogwood Initiative, shows that support for the NDP has climbed to 44 per cent in the new SOWK federal electoral district, while it has fallen to 20 per cent for the Conservatives.
Liberal support is at nine per cent, while Green Party support is at five per cent. The number of eligible voters “not sure” was 21 per cent.
All three candidate for the main parties – Richard Cannings for the NDP, Marshall Neufeld for the Conservatives and Connie Denesiuk for the Liberals – participated in the Osoyoos Cherry Fiesta parade on July 1 as they continued to tour the riding trying to make themselves known.
Kai Nagata, energy and democracy director with Dogwood Initiative, said the polling in SOWK asked for party preference and did not name the individual candidates.
That’s because with just three months remaining until the anticipated federal election date of Oct. 19, the Green Party has not yet nominated a candidate in SOWK.
“In order to make it fair to all the parties, we simply asked the generic question of the candidate for X party,” Nagata said.
The new federal riding largely contains the existing electoral district of B.C. Southern Interior, in which NDP MP Alex Atamanenko was re-elected in 2011 with 51 per cent of the vote compared to Conservative candidate Stephen Hill’s 39 per cent.
But the new riding loses some of the NDP strongholds in the east and gains the strongly Conservative Penticton area.
When Elections Canada took the 2011 poll-by-poll results and transposed them to the new boundaries, they found the Conservatives would have won in SOWK with 44.8 per cent of the vote compared to 39.4 per cent for the NDP.
Under the new boundaries, the 2011 results would have given the Green Party 8.1 per cent and the Liberals 7.1 per cent.
This means the 20 per cent Conservative support identified in the Insights West poll, if accurate, shows a dramatic plunge in support, even if their support is slightly higher when only decided voters are considered.
“The level of support for Conservative candidates in South Okanagan and Vancouver South is particularly low at this point,” said Mario Canseco, vice president of public affairs at polling firm Insights West. “The NDP is connecting extremely well in South Okanagan-West Kootenay.”
The poll surveyed 1,209 voting-age adults with telephone interviews on four federal ridings. The other ridings polled were North Vancouver, Vancouver South and West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea-to-Sky Country.
In SOWK, 302 people were polled, which gives a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 per cent 19 times out of 20.
Both Cannings and Denesiuk said they’ve encountered a strong “time for change” sentiment at the doors.
“It’s a very friendly reception, even in areas that we considered fairly Conservative such as Penticton,” said Cannings. “We’re getting a lot of very positive comments at the doors. It feels very good and people are telling us that they are switching their votes especially from Conservative to NDP.”
Denesiuk also senses a strong mood for change.
“It’s very positive,” the Liberal candidate said of the reception she’s received. “I hear that people are ready for change. I hear that people certainly do have concerns about the way that governance has occurred over the last number of years.”
Conservative candidate Neufeld points out that with no incumbent running, people will get a change at the local level regardless of which candidate is elected.
But the topic that most often comes up at the doors, he said, is bread-and-butter economic issues.
“The most common theme is on the economy in one way or the other,” he said, adding that people have been asking him about the Conservative plan to increase the universal childcare benefit.
He also adds that he’s getting positive comments from couples who say they will benefit from the Conservative government’s changes to allow income splitting for tax purposes.
“It’s really economic issues that catch people in their everyday lives,” he said. “Primarily taxation. Those are still the most common topics to have come up.”
Neufeld said he hopes that people will continue to have the economy and security as their main focus.
“If they do, I’m confident that for most people in South Okanagan-West Kootenay, their views on those topics line up with the views of the Conservative Party,” Neufeld said.
However, Nagata said that polling shows the shift away from the Conservatives is largely the result of concerns about the overreach of government surveillance as well as governance issues.
“There’s a whole host of issues around governance, accountability and transparency,” he said. “We’re seeing a lot of 2011 Conservative voters losing interest in the Conservative Party … The Senate and behaviour of people like (Senator) Mike Duffy (are factors).”
Many Conservatives in the B.C. Interior were supporters of the former Reform Party, which had its roots in promises to rein in pensions and bring MPs and Senators to heal, he said.
“You’ve basically got the PMO (Prime Minister’s Office) surrounded by criminals and ne’er-do-wells and the Duffy affair has really dented the Conservatives in the Interior,” he said.
After asking questions on party support and the issues, the poll asked respondents how they voted in 2011. This provided insights on the issues motivating voters who have shifted support, he said.
The Dogwood Initiative is a non-profit organization that campaigns on environmental issues such as pipelines, tanker traffic with crude oil and coal exports.
Nagata said those issues have also shifted voter preference, including in the Interior.
For the three candidates, getting to know voters in the sprawling new riding has kept them on the go and working long hours.
Conservative Neufeld handed out small Canadian flags to spectators during the Osoyoos Cherry Fiesta parade between stops in Penticton and Oliver.
Cannings waved at spectators from a large convertible that looked more Liberal red than NDP orange. He then stayed in Osoyoos for much of the afternoon talking to people at a booth at Gyro Park.
Denesiuk walked in the parade handing out soft-centered strawberry candies to children – and adults – after spending time mingling with locals at the Rotary pancake breakfast. She and her husband then headed up to Penticton to do some volunteer work after the parade.
Cannings said he now has campaign offices open in both Penticton and Castlegar staffed with volunteers.
Before attending Cherry Fiesta, he spent a week in the Kootenays, then campaigned in the Okanagan before heading over to Boundary Country.
“I’m campaigning most days,” he said. “It’s a little harder with these temperatures to stay door knocking in the late afternoon, but we’re working hard.”
He goes to community events, holds events like coffee parties and meet-the-candidate opportunities and does lots of door knocking.
Recently he’s knocked on doors in Castlegar, Trail, Rossland, Osoyoos, Oliver, Penticton and Grand Forks, he said.
After spending time in the Okanagan last week, Denesiuk was headed to West Kootenay.
“I take full advantage of every moment that I’m here,” she said in a telephone interview from one of her West Kootenay campaign stops. “I’ll be door knocking tonight in Castlegar after a series of meetings during the day.”
She’s opened a campaign office in Trail that’s open several days a week and is staffed by volunteers. She expects to have another in Penticton as of Aug. 1.
Neufeld said he was approaching the riding systematically, starting in his Penticton hometown and moving out from there.
“We’ve also spent days door knocking in Osoyoos and Trail and Penticton, but we’ll be covering every part of the riding as the summer goes on,” he said.
Neufeld said he enjoys meeting people through door knocking.
“You get a wide variety of opinions,” he said. “It is grounding to someone who is seeking public office to continue to hear the priorities of individuals.”
All of the candidates acknowledge encountering some people at the doors who tell them they are supporting other parties, but most people are very polite and none report any bad experiences at the doors.
“I haven’t had any doors slammed on my face,” said Denesiuk. “Not one. People are polite. We’re Canadian.”
RICHARD McGUIRE
Osoyoos Times
He’s hoping for an orange wave, but federal NDP candidate Richard (Dick) Cannings rode a very red car in the Cherry Fiesta parade. (Richard McGuire photo)
Federal Liberal candidate Connie Denesiuk reached out to young future voters in the Cherry Fiesta parade. (Richard McGuire photo)
