By Roy Wood, Special to the Times Chronicle 

The population of the South Okanagan and Similkameen is projected to jump about 17 per cent to 112,834 over the next 20 years, according to a report unveiled recently.

The estimate was included in the Regional Growth Strategy (RGS) Snapshot presented to the Regional District of Okanagan Similkameen (RDOS) board meeting of March 19.

The report has been a provincially mandated annual event since 2010. It measures the progress of the district as reflected by several key indicators in areas ranging from housing to energy emissions.

The report presented last week tracks year-to-year changes in the indicators between 2023 and 2024. The data is collected from a variety of sources, including BC Stats, census data and RDOS internal reports.

CAO Jim Zaffino acknowledged that some of the year-to-year data can be imperfect and should be “taken with a grain of salt.”

In the area of energy consumption, for example, “you could have a really hot year,” resulting high demand, he said. Bus ridership is measured by surveying a couple of days a year, “So, was that a high (ridership) day or a low day? … It’s imperfect, but we’re required to do this update every year.”

Zaffino added, “We’re doing our best with the data … It’s not so much the change year to year that is of note so much as long-term trends, cumulative over several years.”

The regional population estimate appeared in the “Context” section of the report. It is based on information from BC Stats and is the only long-term projection in the RGS document.

The report characterizes progress in each of 16 key indicators as doing well, doing poorly or remaining unchanged.

In the Housing and Development section of the report, the proportion of housing starts in “primary growth areas” compared to rural areas increased by 11 per cent between 2023 and 2024. This is declared a positive change.

According to the report, “This is important as a means of understanding growth within the RDOS to ensure residential areas can be effectively and efficiently serviced, as well as protecting important areas for agriculture and biodiversity.”

Other positive developments involved median home prices, which decreased by 6.8 per cent year to year, and the change in “housing starts by type,” which saw just 21.4 per cent of new dwellings being single units compared to the historical average of 67 per cent.

The Ecosystems, Natural Areas and Parks section included two positive indicators.

The amount of land considered parkland or protected increased by 78.5 hectares. These include “lands zoned as a park and lands owned by The Nature Trust of BC, the Nature Conservancy, Ducks Unlimited and the Land Conservancy.”

The average daily water consumption per person decreased by 158 cubic metres.

On the negative side, the average weight of garbage dumped in the Campbell Mountain landfill in Penticton jumped from 1.34 kilograms per person per day to 1.36 kilograms.

A significant increase in the number of riders on the BC Transit bus system is reported as the positive highlight of the Infrastructure and Transportation section. By way of examples:

  • Penticton recorded 451,228 riders in 2023, which rose to 521,297 in 2024, marking a 15.5 per cent increase;
  • Osoyoos experienced a mild rise to 12,662 in 2024, a 2.4 per cent jump; and
  • Summerland saw a substantial 10.6 per cent increase, with ridership growing from 19,981 in 2023 to 22,093 in 2024.

The Regional Economic Development section contained a bit of bad news, reporting that the “number of businesses with employees” decreased slightly between 2023 and 2024.

“A healthy, diverse regional economy is one of the cornerstones of more sustainable, resilient communities,” the report said.

“The RGS provides an opportunity to encourage and support the development of a more diverse and healthier regional economy, which in turn will help support the South Okanagan on its journey to become a more sustainable region.”

On the positive side, the total value of residential, commercial, industrial and institutional building permits is up across the region from 2023 to 2024.

The RGS report included results from a 2024 survey of public opinion in the areas of local government services and programs across the region.

The good news is that residents are generally happy with their overall quality of life. But when assessing programs and performance from local government, the results are less enthusiastic.

More than 83 per cent of respondents to the survey described the quality of life in their communities as “good” or “very good.” Just three per cent said it was “poor.”

Asked about the level of programs and services provided by local government and staff, nearly half described the level as “average.” Over 30 per cent rated programs and services as “good” or “very good” and less that 20 per cent opted for “poor” or “very poor.”

The RDOS includes the municipalities of Penticton, Summerland, Osoyoos, Oliver, Keremeos and Princeton plus the nine “Electoral areas” that encompass the rural areas surrounding them.