With less than three weeks to go until Election Day on Oct. 19, attention remains focused on the national parties and their leaders.
But when you go into the voting booth, the names on your ballot won’t be Stephen Harper, Thomas Mulcair, Justin Trudeau or Elizabeth May.
Rather, as always, you’ll be voting for a local candidate to represent you as Member of Parliament in Ottawa.
Some studies have estimated that the quality of the local candidate only has an impact of about five per cent on the outcome in a riding.
I tend to think a strong incumbent or a disastrous candidate has more impact than that, but it’s true that we don’t pay enough attention to local candidates.
It is sometimes said that a dog or a chimpanzee running as a Conservative in rural Alberta would easily win election.
That’s probably true, though I’m sure there are rules against that.
Then there were candidates like the NDP’s Ruth Ellen Brosseau, who was swept to victory in 2011 in a francophone Quebec riding even though she didn’t campaign, spoke only basic French, wasn’t from anywhere near her riding and had no expectation of winning. She was so convinced she would lose that she took a trip to Las Vegas during the campaign.
Surprise. She was simply swept in blindly by voters on the NDP’s Orange Wave.
All this is to suggest that voters should pay much more attention to the local candidate.
Party platforms change as the reality of public office sets in, but you want a high-quality individual who can speak for your interests and mediate on your behalf with the layers of government.
I’ve had a chance for more than a year to get to know Conservative candidate Marshall Neufeld, Liberal Connie Denesiuk and Richard Cannings of the NDP.
Green candidate Samantha Troy only jumped in a few weeks ago, midway through the campaign, but I’ve now interviewed her and seen her at one candidates forum.
All four of these individuals appear to be worthy candidates, although they have different strengths and weaknesses and they represent parties with conflicting views.
All are intelligent, articulate and conversant with their respective parties’ platforms. They think well on their feet and they connect well with constituents.
The three who have been in the race since last year have worked very hard, and newcomer Troy has obviously hit the ground running.
For those happy with the Harper government, who believe the world is a dangerous place and that Canada needs a strong (opponents would say “authoritarian’) leader who will stay the course, the choice of Neufeld and the Conservatives is an easy one to make.
Neufeld is probably the best versed of the candidates on the ways of Ottawa, having worked more than two years in the capital as a legislative assistant to former cabinet minister Stockwell Day.
Neufeld sometimes comes across as a little too scripted, but that’s probably due to an abundance of caution. He came across a little testy on a few questions at a recent candidates’ forum in Penticton, and his failure to appear at a few earlier forums probably annoyed some people who likely wouldn’t have voted for him anyway.
For the majority who believe it’s time for change and for Harper to go, however, the choice is much more difficult.
There are differences between the platforms of the NDP, Liberals and Greens, but there are more similarities. Ideologically, they aren’t too far apart.
Under Mulcair, the NDP has moved to the centre. Trudeau, meanwhile, has tried to out-flank the NDP by moving left.
The two leaders highlight their differences, trying to woo voters seeking change, but when you strip away the posturing, the differnces aren’t that great.
As a candidate, I give Denesiuk a very slight edge in skills. She comes across as very personable and her experience in school trustee politics at local, provincial and national levels shows. She’s articulate and makes strong arguments.
Despite this, and the strong campaign she’s run, it’s highly unlikely she can secure enough votes to do any better than third place. This region has no Liberal tradition in recent history.
Cannings has very strong environmental credentials, but he’s a quick study and has come up to speed on a broad range of issues.
By virtue of being the frontrunner, he has the best shot of coalescing voters as the anti-Harper candidate.
Although he is articulate, his flat speaking style has sometimes lacked the passion that voters expect in their political leaders. He appears to be working at improving this, if his recent appearance at the Penticton forum is any indication.
Troy is a political newbie and she’s only been with the Green Party for a few weeks. Although she read many of her answers at the Penticton forum, she also showed she is smart and can think on her feet.
For those whose main issue is the environment, it’s difficult to claim that Troy is any stronger on this issue than renowned environmentalist Cannings.
The main reason to vote for her would be to help the Green Party to grow in this region over the longer term.
Hopefully you’ll have a chance to hear the candidates speak at a forum or better yet to meet them one-to-one at an event or on your doorstep.
You can watch the two-hour Penticton forum, at which I was on the media panel, by following the link from this column’s web version.
What the national leaders and parties say is important, but it’s not true that the local MP is simply a puppet. A good MP can make a huge difference.
Choose wisely.
Richard McGuire is reporter/photographer with the Osoyoos Times. He worked on Parliament Hill for 14 years.
Watch the Penticton candidates forum
