By Dan Walton

The BC Tree Fruit Cooperative is expecting 12 million pounds of cherries to be harvested in the province this year – that’s 50 per cent more than 2016.

But local orchardist Greg Norton is skeptical about forecasts – he doesn’t make any estimates “until the cherries have been boxed and the cheque has been cashed.”

Norton believes 12 million pounds of cherries is a little optimistic.

“The potential is there, I wouldn’t argue with that,” he said. “But my potential is 100,000 pounds of cherries, that doesn’t mean I’m counting on it though. That’s farming.”

The scientific estimates are made by people who don’t actually grow cherries, he suspects.

“They haven’t been around long enough. No offence. But like I say, I make my estimates when the cheque has been cashed.”

Even though Norton doesn’t like to count his eggs before they hatch, the wet spring is making him optimistic about this year’s cherry harvest.

“The weather has been way more frustrating for me than it has for my trees. My trees are loving this,” he said. “When I see big, dark healthy green leaves, that means the pipeline to the cherry is wide open, and that’s good news.”

Cherries are expected to come into season toward the end of June this year, about a month later than last year. It may seem as though this year’s blossom is coming especially late, but the past two years have been abnormally early; 2017 is more closely aligned with the historic trend.

So far, it’s been a “tremendous” growing season with very little stress on the trees, Norton said. However, “peaches are not enjoying this as much as the cherries. Peaches are warm blooded. They’re still doing fine, just a little more anemic looking. They normally prefer a bit more heat than they’re getting.”

Crops can benefit from greater amounts of precipitation in many ways, but constant rain can hamper harvesting efforts.

Pinder Dhaliwal, the local vice president for the BC Fruit Growers’ Association (BCFGA), said crops are looking healthy so far, but “hopefully it doesn’t rain during the ripe season for the cherries.”

Some orchardists have had their pruning and thinning efforts slowed down because of frequent rain, Dhaliwal said, but wet weather is a much bigger drawback during harvest.

“Cherries are green and pea sized so wet weather doesn’t impact the quality at this point, it just delays it.”

But traditionally, June is one of the wettest months in the Okanagan. Dhaliwal hopes the weather systems will be exhausted from months of abnormally high precipitation, but that may be wishful thinking.

“Will we have the most rain in June again this year?” he ominously asks.

Those who make cherry estimates take into account as many variables as possible, and Fred Steele, president of the BCFGA, thinks their figure of 12 million pounds is reliable.

“They have people with a pretty good eye, they can estimate a crop size pretty close,” said Steele. “It comes with experience.”

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump set in motion to renegotiate the NAFTA agreement which will likely have an effect on agricultural markets south of the border.

Steele said B.C.’s agricultural stakeholders began taking proactive measures against threats to free trade years ago, and the logical next step is to open up new markets in the rapidly-developing Asian markets.

“That market is extremely important if we want to reach as many people as possible.”

Also, 2016 was a census year and the BCFGA received good news in the updated stats. Tree fruit acreage has expanded by six per cent across the province, and collective profits have increased by 51 per cent. Steele is happy that the BCFGA now has proof.

He knew the province’s fruit growers were making progress, but “without a comprehensive census in that regard we were flying in the dark.”