Pollster Mario Canseco, vice president of public affairs at Insights West
Federal voters in B.C. are shifting their political colours from blue to orange and this trend is especially pronounced in the new riding of South Okanagan-West Kootenay (SOWK).
That’s the word from pollster Mario Canseco, vice president of public affairs at Insights West, which conducted polls in four B.C. ridings earlier this month.
Canseco spoke last week to the Osoyoos Times about the poll findings and the insights they provide on voters in SOWK, which includes Osoyoos and Oliver.
The poll comes amidst media speculation that Prime Minister Stephen Harper may call an earlier-than-normal start date the Oct. 19 election, possibly triggering the election in August.
The Insights West poll was conducted before the Conservative government sent cumulative payments of the increased Universal Child Care Benefit (UCCB) to millions of families on July 20.
A more recent national poll by Mainstreet Research shows a spike in Conservative popularity after UCCB payments were issued.
The Insights West poll found local support at 44 per cent for the NDP, while Conservative support was down to 20 per cent. If poll-by-poll results from 2011 were applied to the new boundaries, the Conservatives would have won a narrow victory.
Canseco noted that NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair also polls strongly in SOWK, at 37 per cent, compared to Harper, at 24 per cent.
The spread between the NDP and the Conservatives is much greater in SOWK than in the three Lower Mainland ridings also polled, where the Liberals show more strongly.
Liberals lead significantly in Vancouver South and they are narrowly ahead in North Vancouver and West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country.
In SOWK, however, the Liberals only have nine per cent support and their leader Justin Trudeau has 18 per cent support.
In the Vancouver ridings, Liberal numbers are more or less at the levels they were in 2011, Canseco said, but the change in standings has been triggered more by Conservative votes bleeding to the NDP than by any gains the Liberals have made.
A different phenomenon is taking place in SOWK, he suggests.
“The Liberals have a chance to capture a couple of ridings in Metro Vancouver and they are doing well in the two ridings they hold right now,” he said. “But once you get past Metro Vancouver, you start to look at a scenario where the strategic vote is going to come into play. There might be somebody who is thinking about voting for the Liberal Party and starts to look at the chances of that vote enabling another victory for the Conservative candidate.”
This seems to be the case in SOWK, he said, because Trudeau’s numbers aren’t bad, but people don’t believe the local Liberal candidate has a chance so they are voting for the NDP.
In SOWK, the pollsters asked about party and leader preferences, but they did not ask about local candidates by name.
All three candidates are new – Richard (Dick) Cannings for the NDP, Marshall Neufeld for the Conservatives and Connie Denesiuk for the Liberals. A Green Party candidate has not yet been nominated.
On several of the issues the pollsters asked about, opinion was more pronounced in SOWK than in the Lower Mainland.
When asked if government surveillance over citizens has gone too far, 63 per cent of those polled in SOWK agreed.
The poll did not specifically mention by name the Harper government’s Bill C-51, which opponents say curtails civil liberties and supporters say addresses terrorism.
Opinion on the Senate was also stronger in SOWK, with 70 per cent saying the behaviour of some senators has negatively affected their views of the incumbent government.
“These are two issues where the NDP has been very consistent on where they stand,” said Canseco, suggesting that stronger concern about those issues in SOWK is translating into support for the NDP.
“They don’t want to see Bill C-51 and they are definitely looking for a way to change the Senate.”
Canseco said the low number of undecided voters in SOWK suggests people are more engaged.
The NDP is connecting very well as a party with voters in SOWK, Canseco said, even if this isn’t necessarily a result of the local candidate.
The Insights West poll was conducted by telephone interviews between July 3 and July 7 and 302 adult residents of SOWK were surveyed. Based on a random sample, the margin of error is plus or minus 5.6 per cent 19 times out of 20.
The poll was conducted for Dogwood Initiative, an organization that campaigns on environmental issues.
Canseco said he hopes to do two more polls in SOWK, most likely one in September and one before the Oct. 19 election.
RICHARD McGUIRE
Osoyoos Times
Marshall Neufeld, federal Conservative candidate in South Okanagan-West Kootenay. (Richard McGuire file photo)
Richard (Dick) Cannings federal NDP candidate in South Okanagan-West Kootenay. (Richard McGuire file photo)
Connie Denesiuk, federal Liberal candidate in South Okanagan-West Kootenay. (Photo supplied)
