A report on demographic trends and growth management in Oliver shows the town won’t likely surpass 5,000 in population until 2015.
Regional district planner Christopher Garrish told council that BC Stats has determined that the Town’s population (approximately 4,800) has likely declined by 2.3 per cent between 2011 and 2012.
While the Official Community Plan (OCP) contemplated the Town reaching a population of 5,100 by 2010, this figure is now more likely to be reached by 2015-17.
Garrish’s report touches on housing trends within the Town and how they relate to policies in the OCP. The plan’s seven-year projected annual growth rate is two per cent. But in hindsight, this rate is seen to be somewhat “optimistic,” Garrish said.
For the 20-year period from 1966 to 1986, the Town experienced an annual growth rate of 1.1 per cent. From 1991 to 2011, this rate has risen to 1.38 per cent, which falls within the “low” classification for growth established by the plan.
Garrish said it is estimated that the Town may need to provide upwards of 1,000 new residential units by 2040, or anywhere between 20-50 units per year. This is based on two unlikely scenarios: the “low” growth rates since 1971 remaining unchanged and not trending higher; and the average number of 2.2 persons per household between 1996 and 2011 remaining constant.
Garrish said the Town’s ability to successfully meet growth projections will depend on how it utilizes its existing land base (considering future boundary expansion constraints). Under current zoning designations, it is estimated there is capacity for an additional 80 single detached dwelling units in town.
Garrish said the Town is seen to have enough vacant land to meet approximately 60-70 per cent of its projected growth rate over the next 30 years. To address this potential shortfall, Garrish said the Town has taken the important step through the introduction of “carriage houses” in the new zoning bylaw.
Mayor Ron Hovanes said people have been taking advantage of secondary suites and carriage houses in Oliver.
Staff also believe there may be capacity for additional residential development to meet future growth demands. This includes the “Desert Hills” lands (near the cemetery) and those north of Lions Park adjacent to Highway 97.
Garrish said of the 2,150 private dwelling units at the time of the 2011 Census, the majority were single detached units, which tend to be one of the more expensive forms of housing in Oliver.
Based on real estate data, the average sale price of residential units in town is approximately $259,074.
Garrish said the Town will continue to face the challenge of accommodating future growth.
He noted there is a “scarcity” of developable land within the Town’s boundaries, and accommodating increased population growth will largely depend on increased densification or expanded boundaries.
Garrish said the Town should continue to meet its future growth through densification and a variety of housing stock for an aging population.
Hovanes said the Town has the “smallest footprint” in the regional district, and the highest growth rate compared to other areas. The mayor acknowledged that growth in Oliver is limited, but he noted the “densified” community is doing quite well, with room to grow.
Lyonel Doherty
Oliver Chronicle
